Deal Equity
ICM Chip Count Calculator
Convert stacks and the payout ladder into deal equity ($EV) with the classic Independent Chip Model — so chops make sense in pounds, not just chips.
Deal setup
Chip stacks
Total 10,000 chips
Payout ladder
Pool £1,000
ICM equity
| Player | Chip % | ICM % | ICM £ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hero | 50% | 38.39% | £383.93 |
| Player 2 | 30% | 32.75% | £327.50 |
| Player 3 | 20% | 28.86% | £288.57 |
Chip % is raw stack share; ICM % is model $EV share of the prize pool. Short stacks usually gain ICM % vs chip %; chip leaders usually lose some.
Deal proposal — ICM vs chops
| Player | Equal | Chip chop | vs ICM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hero | £333.33 | £500 | £383.93(−£116.07 vs chip) |
| Player 2 | £333.33 | £300 | £327.50(+£27.50 vs chip) |
| Player 3 | £333.33 | £200 | £288.57(+£88.57 vs chip) |
Equal = pool ÷ players. Chip chop = pool × chip %. Positive “vs chip” means ICM pays them more than a pure chip chop.
Chip EV / ICM model only — not a substitute for bubble factor, future play, skill edge, or negotiated deal terms. Use as a tournament deal-making aid.
How ICM is computed
We use the standard Malmuth Independent Chip Model. Among players still in the deal, each finishes in the next paid place with probability equal to their chip stack divided by chips remaining. That player is awarded the next prize on the ladder; equity for everyone else is computed recursively on the remaining stacks and remaining prizes. Results are memoised over remaining-player subsets (exact for typical final-table sizes).
Chip percentage alone ignores the ladder shape. ICM equity is the model share of the prize pool — the usual baseline for discussing equal chops, chip chops, and save-and-play deals. It is not a substitute for bubble factor or future play; pair it with the poker timer at the table and the equity calculator for hand decisions.
Frequently asked questions
- What is the Independent Chip Model (ICM)?
- ICM converts chip stacks and a payout ladder into dollar equity ($EV) for each remaining player. It assumes every chip is equally likely to finish in any place, proportional to stack sizes — the classic Malmuth recursive model used for tournament deal-making.
- Why is ICM equity different from chip percentage?
- Prize pools are not linear. First place pays more than second, so a chip leader’s “extra” chips are worth less than a short stack’s survival equity. Short stacks usually gain ICM % versus raw chip %; big stacks usually lose some.
- Equal chop vs chip chop vs ICM chop?
- Equal chop splits the remaining prize pool evenly. Chip chop splits it by chip percentage. ICM chop uses model $EV from stacks + payouts. Comparing them shows who is asking for or giving up money relative to the ladder.
- Does this include bubble factor or future play?
- No. This calculator reports chip-EV / ICM model equity only. It does not adjust for bubble factor, skill differences, ICM pressure in future hands, or negotiated soft terms. Treat it as a deal-making aid, not a binding settlement.